America must stop Binyamin Netanyahu from annexing Palestinian land

MAKE IT OFFICIAL: henceforth, the Hebrew word for magician is Bibi. This is not just because Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, appears to have won a record fifth term in office on April 9th. It is also because he pulled off the trick with corruption charges hanging over him, and in the face of a tough challenge from a new party packed with generals. Bibi, as he is known, made some parties vanish by taking their supporters, and conjured more seats for his own Likud party. He may soon surpass David Ben-Gurion, the country’s founding father, as Israel’s longest-serving leader (see article).

His victory has come at a cost. His potion—mixing muscular nationalism with Jewish chauvinism and anti-elitism—has helped poison Israel’s politics. He claims he is innocent, blaming the charges against him on shadowy plots and sowing distrust of institutions: the police, the judiciary and the media. Mr Netanyahu may do yet more lasting damage. In the final days of the campaign he vowed to annex parts of the West Bank beyond Jerusalem, something no previous leader has thought prudent. This risks killing any chance of peace based on a two-state solution—which involves the creation of a Palestinian state—and of thus turning Israel into a rogue nation.

Fear not, say the optimists: Mr Netanyahu was just throwing out sweets to win over right-wing voters; he knows full well that annexation of the occupied territories would breach international law, cause an outcry in Europe and alienate Arab states that have been moving closer to Israel.

The problem with this view is that it ignores the changing political and strategic landscape. Mr Netanyahu must still form a government, which means making concessions to his likely allies on the right, who feel more strongly about annexation than he does. The prime minister’s legal troubles—he faces indictment on three cases of alleged corruption—leave him vulnerable. What will be the price when the Knesset considers a bill that would shield him from prosecution? If it is annexation, the process may begin with Maale Adumim, a large settlement on the outskirts of Jerusalem which the prime minister specifically promised to bring under Israeli sovereignty. But as Mr Netanyahu himself has said, it is unlikely to end there.

America’s role has changed, too. For decades its presidents acted as a counterweight to Israeli annexationists (and gave cover to prime ministers fearful of standing up to them). President Donald Trump, though, has taken America’s finger off the scales. He has emboldened the right by recognising Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967, and moving the embassy to Jerusalem, a contested city. Mr Netanyahu made good use of these moves in his campaign. Even if he does not feel the need to go further by formally annexing territory, there is nothing to stop the creeping sort: the expansion of Jewish settlements and their infrastructure. That is happening with barely a peep from the world, let alone the divided Palestinians.

The Trump administration says it is about to release a plan for the “ultimate deal” between Israelis and Palestinians. If this is to have any hope of success, or even of starting a process, the president must rule out unilateral annexation—whether or not the Palestinians participate. If Israelis can grab land at a whim, they will have little incentive to negotiate. If Palestinians see parts of their future state taken away willy-nilly, neither will they.

In the end, Israel faces a stark choice. Jews and Arabs count roughly equal numbers between the Mediterranean and the Jordan river. So Israel cannot permanently hold on to all the land without sacrificing either its Jewish majority or the ideal of a proper democracy that does not discriminate against Arabs. The more Mr Netanyahu abandons land-for-peace, the more the choice will be annexation-for-apartheid. That dilemma is something even Bibi cannot conjure away.