Calls for Israeli ‘accountability’ after deadly strike

With help from Maggie Miller, Phelim Kine, Daniel Lippman and Connor O’Brien

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President JOE BIDEN is calling for “accountability” in Israel’s investigation into the death of World Central Kitchen aid workers, but there are doubts in the U.S. that justice will be served for the incident.

The investigation “must be swift, it must bring accountability, and its findings must be made public,” Biden said in a statement Tuesday night, echoing earlier comments made by National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY.

A senior U.S. official and a former State Department lawyer NatSec Daily spoke with doubt that will happen. Unprompted, each brought up Palestinian-American journalist SHIREEN ABU AKLEH’s death two years ago: After she was shot while reporting in the West Bank, Israel said she was likely killed by an Israeli soldier. Still, no one was punished for her death. The U.S. said the origin of the bullet couldn’t be determined and the shooting was most likely unintentional.

A recent case of Israeli hostages being mistakenly killed by Israeli soldiers also raises doubts: The soldiers who shot the three hostages who were holding white flags in December received psychological care, but it’s unclear if they faced any punishment: Kirby directed questions today about those soldiers and other cases to Israeli officials, who didn’t respond to requests for comment.

“In practice, the IDF will likely investigate itself, and if past incidents are any indication, not hold anyone accountable,” BRIAN FINUCANE, a former State Department lawyer who worked on international and national security law, told NatSec Daily.

If the U.S. wants accountability, Finucane added, the Justice Department could investigate and potentially bring charges if there’s sufficient evidence, since one of the victims was American.

Kirby told reporters that the U.S. won’t conduct its own investigation into the matter and didn’t specify a timeline for when Israel’s would be completed. Another question that has been raised is whether American weapons were used in the strike. Pressed on how Washington would know if this was the case without its own investigation, Kirby pivoted.

“We expect the Israelis to conduct a thorough, comprehensive, complete and transparent investigation,” he said. “We look forward to finding out the results of that investigation, and we’ll move on from there.”

A senior U.S. official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Israel’s actions, told us “the devil is in the details of when we get the official story from the Israelis and how we calibrate then,” adding that they have little hope that Israel’s investigation will be transparent or honest.

While active conflicts make targeting complex, commanders and other military leaders are responsible under international law for preventing and punishing law of war violations by subordinates. Finucane noted that the U.S. itself has investigated and prosecuted potential law of war violations during armed conflict, though it has also been accused of under-reporting or under-investigating civilian casualties.

What makes this strike different than Akleh’s case and others in Gaza so far, however, is that Israel almost immediately took the blame for the strike. Israel’s top military commander Lt. Gen. HERZI HALEVI also admitted that it was Israel’s fault, caused by a misidentification at night.

And, of course, the stakes are higher when another country’s citizens are killed and their leaders are calling for action.

The investigation should address a broader issue than this single strike, JEREMY BEN-AMI, president of the progressive pro-Israel group J Street, told NatSec Daily.

“It’s about how do we prevent things like this from happening going forward,” Ben-Ami said, pointing us to an article outlining Israel’s use of artificial intelligence to target suspected militants in Gaza. “It is a structural problem that has to look at the way in which the targets are identified.”

In Halevi’s statement today, he said Israel will take immediate actions to ensure more is done to protect humanitarian aid workers.

“This incident was a grave mistake. Israel is at war with Hamas, not with the people of Gaza,” he said, promising a thorough investigation by Israel. “We will learn from the conclusions, and implement them immediately.”

Read: ‘Angry’ Biden not changing Israel policy after deadly strike on aid workers by our own ALEX WARD

The Inbox

PIER TALKS TANGLED: Israel’s strike on the aid group might’ve complicated the Biden administration’s plan to distribute aid from a U.S. military-built pier to desperate civilians in Gaza, our own LARA SELIGMAN, ERIN BANCO and Alex report.

Before the deadly attack, the U.S. had been closing in on a formal agreement with an aid group to distribute food and other resources in Gaza once the military pier is established, two U.S. officials and two senior aid representatives whose organizations work in Gaza told our colleagues.

One of the United Nations organizations in discussions with the U.S. government about the project is its food assistance arm, the World Food Programme, said a U.S. official and the two senior aid representatives. The administration is also in talks with other U.N. organizations to help with the project, the U.S. official said.

But the Israeli strike has complicated those discussions, a second U.S. official and the senior aid representatives said. WFP and other groups are now pressing for additional reassurances from the U.S. for the safety of their aid workers, one of the people said. And the second U.S. official said aid groups are now questioning who they can trust.

THE PRECARIOUS UKRAINIAN FRONT: A growing chorus of observers and Ukrainian officials are warning that Ukraine’s front could collapse if U.S. military assistance to Kyiv falls through and open the door to major territorial losses, our own JAMIE DETTMER writes.

As Russia looks to launch another offensive in Ukraine this summer, Ukrainian military officers told Jamie that there’s a high risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive, as greater troop numbers and guided aerial bombs would allow the Russian army to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts.” That could result in major losses of cities like Odesa in the south and Kharkiv in the north.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one top-ranking military source said.

A setback, Jamie writes, especially amid elections in America and Europe, could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would favor Russia.

ANDRÉS ANGER, CONTINUED: Chef JOSÉ ANDRÉS called on Israel today to “stop killing civilians and aid workers” following the deadly airstrike that killed seven workers from his World Central Kitchen charity.

In a New York Times op-ed, Andrés writes that Israel is “better than killing aid workers who had coordinated their movements with the Israel Defense Forces … The Israeli government needs to open more land routes for food and medicine today.”

Andrés penned the piece a day after speaking about the incident in a call with Biden. In an interview with Reuters’ JEFF MASON today, the chef also claimed Israel targeted his workers “systematically, car by car.” Israel has insisted the strike was unintentional.

Read: U.K. urged to stop selling weapons to Israel after killing of aid workers by our own NOAH KEATE

SULLIVAN’S POSTPONED PLANS: A cracked rib has derailed a planned trip to Saudi Arabia by national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and other top U.S. officials to discuss a deal that would include Riyadh’s normalization of ties with Israel.

“That trip has been postponed,” Kirby told reporters. “He’s recovering from a cracked rib, and that has affected his ability to travel.”

He was not harmed by someone, the spokesperson added: “This was a minor accident of his own. It was not caused by anybody. It was not the result of a nefarious act or anything like that.”

‘NOWHERE SAFE’ IN GAZA: Thirteen humanitarian and human rights organizations warned that time is running out to prevent Israel from invading the southern Gazan city of Rafah, urging countries to take more action to prevent civilian harm.

“There is nowhere safe for people to go in Gaza,” wrote the groups, which include the International Rescue Committee, Save the Children and Oxfam International. “There is nowhere in Gaza with access to sufficient assistance and services to ensure the population’s survival.”

While there’s no clear signs of when Israel might undertake an invasion of Rafah, U.S. officials say Israel doesn’t seem to have a plan for how to alleviate civilian suffering if it happens, loyal NatSec Daily readers will recall. The humanitarian groups called on countries to stop providing weapons and ammunition to Israel in hopes that it would prevent an invasion.

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP-PROOFING THE INDO-PACIFIC: Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL voiced confidence today that Washington’s seminal security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific will be strong enough to survive a potential second DONALD TRUMP presidency.

At an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security, Campbell said that “the momentum that many of these initiatives are developing … will provide that forward progress that will continue under almost any political circumstances,” pointing to the AUKUS security pact with the U.K. and Australia, trilateral engagements with Japan and South Korea and the budding “Quad” alliance with Japan, Australia and India.

Campbell’s remarks come as policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic race against the clock to shore up security partnerships before the November election. Senior diplomats have told POLITICO they are working to speed up implementation of pillar 2 of AUKUS, which involves developing advanced military technology. Allies are also considering whether to move the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which has facilitated weapons transfers to Kyiv, under the purview of NATO.

Keystrokes

HACKERS SCALE UP IN MIDDLE EAST: The conflict between Israel and the militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip is increasingly inspiring nation-state and cyber criminal hackers alike to wade into the conflict, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in.

BASSANT HASSIB, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, said during an MEI-hosted event today on the cyber threat landscape in the Middle East that both sides of the conflict have been hit by cyberattacks. These include Israeli hackers allegedly attacking national and local non-governmental organizations that provide services to Palestinian civilians, along with pro-Palestinian hacktivist groups attacking Israeli media sites, Hassib said.

MEI analyst NIRANJAN SHANKAR said during the event that the Iranian government or Iran-aligned hackers are behind many of the attacks on Israel and its allies, He noted that while it is “unclear” if there was much coordination between Hamas and Iranian government hackers prior to the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, “there was a sharp increase” in coordination after that day.

“Over time, we’ve seen these attacks carried out with greater volume and sophistication,” Shankar said, adding that “we should also expect to see greater coordination, and greater severity of the attacks themselves.”

The Complex

THINK OF THE CHILDREN: Three European foreign ministers wrote an op-ed for POLITICO today urging their fellow NATO members on the continent to contribute their fair share to the transatlantic alliance and redouble their commitment to the group on its 75th anniversary.

In the piece, German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK, French Foreign Minister STÉPHANE SÉJOURNÉ and Polish Foreign Minister RADOSLAW SIKORSKI called on their fellow Europeans to “not turn complacent” and “live up to the fact that this moment may define the future our children will live in.”

The sharp call comes as the war in Ukraine has not only revitalized NATO, but also opened new fractures over the best ways to support Kyiv and what a potential Trump reelection could mean for the alliance, especially as the former president has been critical of European members not meeting their defense spending targets.

GET THEM TO THE GREEKS: Greece approved the purchase of 35 UH-60M Blackhawk helicopters from Lockheed Martin, a government official told Reuters’ LEFTERIS PAPADIMA, as the country revamps its defense industry.

On the Hill

ISRAEL AID PIPELINE: Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) is “strongly considering” various legislative options to condition military sales to Israel in order to get more aid into Gaza, an aide to the Maryland Democrat told our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!).

The menu includes a joint resolution of disapproval, which would block the sales, or stepped-up policy requirements for any future weapons transfers, the aide said.

“As he has repeatedly stated, it makes no sense to send the Netanyahu government more offensive weapons when it is flouting the Biden administration’s reasonable demands” to allow more aid and not invade Rafah.

The development follows Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) voicing support Tuesday for Biden’s possible sale of F-15 fighter jets and munitions to Israel, a move that’s expected to spark debate in Congress if it advances.

SPACE GUARD FIGHT REIGNITED: The Air Force is asking Congress to allow it to move part-time space units out of the Air National Guard and into the Space Force, a move that’s sure to revive the debate over whether to create a new Space Guard, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

A legislative proposal sent to lawmakers last month would authorize the Air Force to transfer space functions now performed by the Air Guard to the Space Force, but doesn’t create a standalone Space National Guard. The proposal came under fire from the National Guard Association of the United States, which backs the Space Force getting its own Guard component. The Pentagon push is sure to fuel the fight, which has seen lawmakers and Guard leaders from space-heavy states (such as Colorado, California and Florida) push for several years for a new, separate outfit for part-time space personnel.

Broadsides

NOT GOOD ENOUGH: Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA said Kyiv’s allies haven’t been providing the country with enough Patriot missile defense systems to fend off Russian strikes.

“Partners did provide us with their different systems, we appreciate that, but it’s just simply insufficient, given the scale of the war,” Kuleba told Reuters’ ANDREW GRAY.

Despite partners having more than 100 Patriot systems at their disposal, Kuleba said, they’ve been unwilling to send Ukraine another five to seven systems — all that’s needed to fend off the barrage of Russian airstrikes that have ramped up in recent weeks.

NO SWIPING RUSSIAN ASSETS: Moscow’s allies are pushing the European Union to not confiscate assets frozen in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our own GREGORIO SORGI reports.

Four officials told Gregorio that China, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are privately pushing officials in Brussels to leave untouched hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian state assets after its invasion of Ukraine and to not redirect those assets to help Kyiv’s reconstruction efforts.

The push comes as Ukraine increasingly calls on the U.S., U.K. and EU member states to officially confiscate the frozen assets and direct those funds toward Ukraine’s war efforts. That push has gained traction among lawmakers in the United States and the United Kingdom — House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.) floated the seizure of Russian assets as part of his proposed framework for a Ukraine aid bill this past weekend.

Read: U.S. states are cutting off Chinese citizens and companies from land ownership by our own PHELIM KINE

Transitions

— DAN KOCHIS is now a senior fellow in the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute. He previously was a research fellow in European affairs at the Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom.

— TOM McCUIN is joining the Association of the U.S. Army as deputy director of media operations and deputy editor of Army Magazine. He previously was program manager of the DCG communications contract team supporting the Army’s Office of the Chief of Public Affairs.

— Lockheed Martin tapped MICHAEL McBRIDE to join its government affairs team as vice president of strategic congressional and political affairs. He most recently worked at BAE Systems, where he served as vice president of legislative affairs.

What to Read

— AYNNE KOKAS, Foreign Affairs: What the TikTok bill gets wrong

— MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO: José Andrés’ moment of crisis and grief

— VLADIMIR KARA-MURZA, The Washington Post: I am proud to have spoken out against Putin’s crimes in Ukraine

Tomorrow Today

— Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: NATO at 75: an alliance for a safer world

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Revisiting U.S. policy towards North Korea

— Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: The future of NATO and the war in Ukraine

— New America, 12 p.m.: A discussion on JIM SCIUTTO’s “The Return of the Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War”

— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: A book discussion on “Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability”

— New America holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m.: Russia in Syria: how Putin uses the Middle East to challenge NATO

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whose last day editing this newsletter is today. Thank God.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whom we’d love to replace her.