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Americans — Democrats especially — have soured on Israel’s military response to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/israel-hamas-war/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Hamas</a>’s Oct. 7 attack. A pair of new polls Wednesday make that starkly clear.

While the American public initially supported Israel’s military action in Gaza, a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx" target=_blank>Gallup poll</a> shows it now disapproves 55 percent to 36 percent. Democrats were roundly critical, disapproving by a whopping 75 percent to 18 percent.

A <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3894" target=_blank>Quinnipiac University poll</a>, meanwhile, found that Americans oppose more military aid for Israel 52 percent to 39 percent — after <i>supporting </i>the aid by a similar margin in November.

On top of previous polls showing increasing criticism of Israel, these surveys confirm the difficult political outlook for U.S.-Israeli relations and a Biden administration that, at least initially, came out strongly on Israel’s side.

But it’s worth putting those numbers in context: Americans still support Israel and its cause, if not its prosecution of the war, and they differentiate between the Israeli people and their government.

This U.S. ally hasn’t squandered Americans’ sympathies — at least not yet.

The trend regarding support for the war, however, is clear; these polls are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/17/democrats-israel-polls/" target=_blank>just the latest</a> to show Americans turning against Israel’s military campaign. They show Democrats, in particular, increasingly sympathizing more with the Palestinians than the Israelis — by a striking 48 percent to 21 percent in the Quinnipiac poll.

But even as they express views that are somewhat tough to reconcile, Americans and even Democrats still sympathize with Israel. A thorough <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/majority-in-u-s-say-israel-has-valid-reasons-for-fighting-fewer-say-the-same-about-hamas/" target="_blank">Pew Research Center poll</a> last week got at that nuance.

The new Gallup poll shows that Americans disapprove of Israel’s campaign by a 19-point margin, but the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/21/israel-gaza-survey-jewish-muslim-opinion/" target=_blank>Pew poll</a> showed that they view Israel’s cause as valid by a 43-point margin. While 58 percent said Israel’s reasons for fighting Hamas were at least “somewhat” valid, only 15 percent disagreed, and just 22 percent said Hamas’s cause was valid.

While just 18 percent of Democrats approved of Israel’s campaign in the new Gallup poll, the Pew poll showed that a majority (52 percent) found Israel’s reasons for fighting valid.

Another key point is just how strongly Americans disapprove of Israel’s campaign.

While the Gallup poll shows that 55 percent of Americans disapprove, the Pew poll showed that just 20 percent labeled it “completely unacceptable.” That included 32 percent of Democrats.

The negative split in the overall number also appears to owe plenty to people who aren’t actually paying close attention. The Gallup poll shows that approval falls from 43 percent among those following the situation very closely, to 37 percent among those following it somewhat closely, to 27 percent among those not following it closely. That suggests a fair amount of the opposition isn’t terribly engaged.

And finally, there’s the line that Americans draw between Israel and its leaders. The Pew poll showed 64 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Israeli people, compared with just 41 percent who have a favorable opinion of the Israeli government. The gap was bigger among Democrats, with 58 percent favoring the Israeli people and just 24 percent favoring their government.

Much of the discontent has to do with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Democrats dislike him 63 percent to 5 percent, according to the Quinnipiac poll, and independents dislike him 43 percent to 23 percent.

The full picture is one of a strained relationship, but not one in which the long-standing alliance between the countries is necessarily taking a turn for the irreparable.

There remain huge political challenges for the Biden administration. The Gallup poll shows Biden’s approval on this issue dropping below a majority even among Democrats (47 percent). Just 21 percent of independents and 16 percent of Republicans approved.

We’ve also seen the Biden administration struggle to find its bearings, including when Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/21/israel-netanyahu-schumer-biden-gaza/" target=_blank>called this month for new elections</a> in Israel — essentially indicating that it’s time for a new leader. Mostly recently, this tension has manifested in a dispute over a U.N. Security Council vote that led Israel to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/25/biden-netanyahu-un-delegation-rift/" target=_blank>cancel a delegation visit to the United States</a>.

But there are also some conflicting signals on public support for the U.S. posture. While a majority of Americans don’t want to send more aid, just 33 percent in the Quinnipiac poll said the United States is currently “too supportive” of Israel. That goes up to 41 percent among Democrats, but it’s still well shy of a majority view.

The danger for the Biden administration is in a prolonged conflict that forces it to make more tough choices, potentially splitting the Democratic base in the process and even alienating some independents.

Former president <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/donald-trump/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Donald Trump</a> in an interview this week urged Israel to “<a href="https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/03/25/trump-to-israel-hayom-only-a-fool-would-have-not-acted-like-israel-on-oct-7/" target=_blank>finish up your war</a>.”

“We can’t have this going on,” Trump said. “And I will say, Israel has to be very careful because you’re losing a lot of the world, you’re losing a lot of support.”

On that last count at least, Trump, Biden and the American people would seem to be in agreement.

University of Minnesota

Aaron Blake is senior political reporter, writing for The Fix. A Minnesota native, he has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Hill newspaper.

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