The confusion over assessing Israel’s ‘compliance’

With help from Alex Ward, Nahal Toosi, Lara Seligman, John Sakellariadis and Daniel Lippman

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Top Democratic senators are perplexed about the State Department’s current stance on whether Israel is complying with humanitarian law before it has finished an assessment, which could determine if Washington will continue sending weapons to its ally.

During a press briefing Monday afternoon, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said Israel is in compliance with the Biden administration’s national security memorandum, which says any country receiving weapons from the U.S. must provide “credible and reliable” assurances that they’re following humanitarian law.

This has become a heated political topic given divisions among Democrats over the Israel-Hamas war and the mounting humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with progressives pushing for limits on what weapons Washington sends to Israel.

“We have not found [Israel] to be in violation of international humanitarian law, either when it comes to the conduct of the war or when it comes to the provision of humanitarian assistance,” Miller told reporters, adding a key caveat: “These assurances are prospective … our view on them is informed by our ongoing assessments.”

His remarks left some natsec lawmakers scratching their heads: First of all, Israel was required to send written assurances by the day before Miller’s remarks, on March 24. That happened, Miller confirmed, but Congress won’t receive a final assessment from State until May 8.

Second, lawmakers were told just hours before Miller’s briefing that State had not yet made a determination, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to share private information. At least one senator’s office sought clarification from State, the aide said.

“I do not believe they have complied with the national security memorandum,” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who signed a letter calling on the U.S. to find Israel hasn’t complied with U.S. law, told NatSec Daily. “You cannot transfer any more arms unless there is additional progress on humanitarian access.”

If State has already made a final assessment that Israel is in compliance, the U.S. is “totally detached from the reality on the ground,” Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), who also signed the letter, told NatSec Daily.

That assessment “would begin laying the foundation for a dangerous future precedent,” he said. “The administration should immediately clarify its position and let the public know where it stands.”

Miller tried to do that during a briefing this afternoon, emphasizing that no final conclusion has been made and the review process is ongoing, but so far hasn’t seen evidence of certain humanitarian law violations.

At least some of the confusion could be chalked up to the fact that this is all new territory for the State Department.

“This is a brand new process, we have never done one of these reports before,” Miller said.

One of the leading arguments against cutting off weapons to Israel is that such a move could leave the nation vulnerable to threats from neighboring countries or militant groups. Regardless, lawmakers and humanitarian groups want President JOE BIDEN to take a harder line on Israel — but so far, it seems the administration won’t do so.

The Inbox

BIBI’S ANGST BEYOND THE UN: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU canceled a visit this week to Washington by Israeli officials after the U.S. declined to exercise its veto power on a U.N. Security Council calling for a cease-fire with Hamas. But there’s more at work behind that decision, one Israel watcher told our own NAHAL TOOSI.

Netanyahu is under intense pressure at home over a proposed law that could change the role that ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis play in Israel’s military. Many such Israelis are exempt from military service, and some of Netanyahu’s coalition partners could abandon him if he goes too far in agreeing to others’ demands to make more ultra-Orthodox followers serve.

But by blasting the U.S. over the U.N. resolution, Netanyahu may appease far-right ministers crucial to his political survival. Netanyahu “manufactured the crisis” with the U.S. because “he needs to change the subject” at home, said a former U.S. official familiar with the Middle East, who like others were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

SAUDI DRAFT PACT: The Biden administration has devised drafts of a Saudi-U.S. security treaty, Nahal also reports. The proposed pact is substantial, but it stops short of a NATO-style Article 5 commitment, which would require the U.S. to treat an attack on the Saudis as an attack on itself.

It emphasizes threats from state actors (read: Iran), according to a Middle East analyst and a senior Biden administration official. There’s been talk of getting the treaty to the Senate by Memorial Day. That’s unlikely because a number of other Middle East-related policy goals need to fall into place. But if it takes longer, the administration will run into election headwinds.

BIBI AIDE SAYS RAFAH WILL HAPPEN: Netanyahu’s top adviser RON DERMER insists Israel will conduct a major military operation in Rafah, a day after his government canceled the trip to Washington that he was set to join.

“We cannot afford to not go into Rafah and finish the job because then what they will do is Oct. 7 again and again and again,” Dermer said in an interview on Fox News today. “So there is no chance that Israel is not going to go and finish the job in Rafah.”

Dermer was supposed to meet with U.S. officials, who were going to discuss alternatives to a major invasion of the southern Gazan city, where more than 1 million Palestinians are sheltering. But Netanyahu pulled the trip after the U.S. abstained from voting on a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a cease-fire in Gaza.

“Once we finish Rafah the heavy phase of this war will be behind us and the terror army of Hamas will be dismantled and then we can start talking about what happens the day after, how do we get to a future for Israelis and Palestinians alike” Dermer continued.

KAMALA’S STEP AHEAD? Vice President KAMALA HARRIS has often gone a half step further than Biden’s comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the West Wing has been supportive of the strategic move, our own EUGENE DANIELS, ALEX WARD and JONATHAN LEMIRE report.

Two administration officials said Harris’ remarks have created more space for Biden to slowly — and privately — offer his own rebukes of Netanyahu and his conduct of the war. But the prevailing stance inside the administration is that Biden and Harris are reading from the same script even if it’s with different emphasis.

“In our view, there’s no daylight and she’s completely in line with the president’s approach,” said a third senior administration official.

HOW JOE JUGGLES UKRAINE AND ISRAEL: Biden shifted his public remarks away from the war in Ukraine and toward the Israel-Hamas war in the final months of 2023 — giving less airtime to Kyiv at a critical moment in the war, according to an analysis of speeches and statements by Matt, ROSMERY IZAGUIRRE and SEAN McMINN.

Mentions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict there picked up again at the start of 2024 amid an intensifying debate about American military assistance.

While it makes sense that Biden paid different attention to each conflict as they unfolded, the findings offer new insight into how his administration has chosen to balance its approach to multiple conflicts abroad that continue to animate voters in a major election year and test the White House’s foreign policy abilities.

The White House insisted Biden’s attention has not wavered on Ukraine.

“Ukraine has been a top priority for President Biden and the White House since October — as it has been throughout the past two years — and that will continue,” National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON said in a statement responding to the analysis.

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Keystrokes

REINING IN AI: Tech companies and policymakers in the EU and the U.S. are at odds over how to best regulate runaway artificial intelligence, as worries mount about the potential consequences of the fast-developing technology, our colleagues report.

They write that “the question they face is whether the U.S., the EU or the United Kingdom — or anyone else — will be able to devise a plan that Western democracies can agree on. If liberal industrialized economies fail to reach a common regime among themselves, China may step in to set the global rulebook for a technology that — in a doomsday scenario — some fear has the potential to wipe humanity off the face of the Earth.”

UKRAINE’S ENERGY SURGE: Ukrainian electricity imports have soared in the wake of Russian missile attacks, reaching their highest point this year today, according to Reuters’ PAVEL POLITYUK.

Before the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine was a net exporter of electricity, owing to its large civilian nuclear program. But the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, and attacks on the power grid have halted exports.

The Complex

‘GIVE US THE DAMN PATRIOTS’: Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA delivered one of his most direct pleas to the West: Send us air defenses, now.

“Give us the damn Patriots,” he demanded, in an interview with our own JAMIE DETTMER. “If we had enough air defense systems, namely Patriots, we would be able to protect not only the lives of our people, but also our economy from destruction.”

Originating in the United States, Patriot surface-to-air missiles are considered the best defense system to combat the ballistic missiles that have been raining down on Ukraine with increasing intensity in recent days.

“When Ukrainian troops are losing positions, let’s look at the reason why,” Kuleba said. “It is because Russia has begun to massively use upgraded aerial guided bombs.”

DOWNING DRONES: The U.S. military has added new air defense systems capable of shooting down enemy drones at Tower 22 in Jordan since the fatal drone attack that killed three soldiers there back in January, a Defense Department official told LARA SELIGMAN.

Soon after the attack, Lara and ERIN BANCO reported that DOD had added “electronically warfare” systems at the outpost capable of taking out incoming threats using electronic jamming. But now, the DOD official revealed that the base has also received “kinetic” systems, capable of shooting them down.

The official declined to say what specific system was added to Tower 22’s defenses. The main weapon the U.S. military uses against drones in the region is RTX’s Coyote uncrewed aerial system.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PENTAGON CLIMATE PUSH: Nearly two dozen progressive organizations sent a letter to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN today, calling on the Pentagon to keep a closer eye on defense contractors’ impact on the climate.

DOD should enforce the Federal Supplier Climate Risks and Resilience Rule, which requires defense contractors to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions, climate-related risk assessments, and science-based emissions reduction targets, argues the letter, led by Win Without War and the Center for International Policy.

“Contractors who seek lucrative deals with government agencies must advance our climate, economic, and national security interests — not undermine them,” reads the letter, signed by 22 groups.

On the Hill

I WANT THE TRUTH: Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) is urging Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES to declassify intelligence detailing PAUL MANAFORT’S ties to Russian spies, amid reports the Trump campaign could soon swoop up its embattled former campaign adviser for a new role this year, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in.

In a letter sent to Haines today, Wyden writes that the redacted portions of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report on Russian election meddling in 2016 contain critical additional information on Manafort, whom the Trump campaign is now eyeing for a campaign adviser role.

The public sections of the report already deemed Manafort — who was indicted on tax and bank fraud felonies before being pardoned by DONALD TRUMP — a “grave counterintelligence threat” to the U.S. due to his ties to Kremlin intelligence assets. But Wyden argues there’s more there — and that the Trump campaign’s interest in his work justifies making it public now.

“Only by understanding the details of that threat can the public guard against a malign foreign influence effort that could once again threaten an American election,” Wyden writes.

The ODNI and Manafort didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.

Read: Bowman reverses after calling reports of Oct. 7 sexual assaults in Israel ‘propaganda’ by our own DANIEL LIPPMAN

Broadsides

WSJ REPORTER DETENTION EXTENDED: A Russian court extended Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH’s pre-trial detention by three months, ahead of the anniversary of his arrest, according to the Wall Street Journal’s ANN M. SIMMONS. Russian authorities accused the reporter last March of committing espionage charges, which the Journal has vehemently denied. The U.S. has also designated Gershkovich as “wrongfully detained.”

ANOTHER POOP SCOOP: After NatSec Daily reported that manure was put in front of national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN’s house in Washington on Monday, we learned that pro-Palestinian protesters also dumped manure outside DefSec Austin’s house, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in.

The activist-shot video from Turkish state TV channel TRT’s YouTube channel shows a significant heap of manure in front of Austin’s house in Great Falls, Va. with activists yelling “Austin, Austin, you ain’t shit, we’ll keep fighting until you quit”. They also yell “Austin, Austin, rise and shine, occupation is a crime!”

A DOD spokesperson confirmed to Lara that there was a small protest but declined to comment further. The video also showed a comparable amount of manure in front of Sullivan’s house and protesters making similar comments.

Read: Putin acknowledges ‘radical Islamists’ carried out Moscow terror attack by our own ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH and SEB STARCEVIC

Also read: JULIAN ASSANGE gets temporary reprieve as he fights extradition to U.S. by our own NOAH KEATE

Transitions

— The Biden administration is eyeing candidates to succeed DAVID SATTERFIELD, the U.S. special envoy focused on humanitarian issues in Gaza. A senior administration official and a U.S. official familiar with the region told Nahal that multiple names are being floated for the role, but declined to give specifics. Satterfield, a retired diplomat, agreed in October to take the role temporarily. It’s not clear when his last day will be. He did not respond to a request for comment.

— SUSAN NELSON is now a communications officer with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. She was previously deputy director of media relations for Foreign Affairs magazine.

— Senegalese opposition leader BASSIROU DIOMAYE FAYE was elected the West African country’s next president, months after his release from prison. His election came in spite of a push from incumbent President MACKY SALL to rewrite the constitution to run for a third term and delay elections.

— TOM SIU has joined cybersecurity firm Inversion6’s fractional chief information security officer practice. He previously ran cybersecurity for Michigan State University and Case Western Reserve University.

What to Read

— IVO DAALDER and KAREN DONFRIED, Foreign Affairs: What Ukraine needs from NATO

— ELISA PHILIPPON SAIEH, The Miami Herald: Haiti needs help from nations within its hemisphere, not more Band-Aid policies

— PERRY BACON JR., The Washington Post: The House’s left was right about Gaza. That could cost them their seats.

Tomorrow Today

— Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: A new threat to women in politics: online gender-based violence

— Henry L. Stimson Center, 12 p.m.: The Israel-Hamas war: impacts and prospects, six months on

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: What is the future of U.S.-Africa trade policy?

— Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 2 p.m.: Ambiguous inclusion: transforming migrants into compatriots on Russia’s border with China

— Washington Post Live, 2 p.m.: A discussion of FAREED ZAKARIA’s “Age of Revolutions: Progress and Backlash from 1600 to the Present”

— Henry L. Stimson Center, 3 p.m.: Developments in North Korea’s foreign policy

— Middle East Policy Council, 7 p.m.: The Middle East at war: what’s next for Israel and the region?

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is neither credible nor reliable.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always gives us clear answers to our questions.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report misstated State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller’s comments about Israel on Monday.