The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), the most powerful pro-Israel lobby group in the US, poured more than $4.5m into an Orange county congressional race in hopes of keeping Dave Min from advancing to the November election.
But on Tuesday, the California state senator did exactly that – outpacing his Democratic competitor Joanna Weiss to come in second in the primary for the seat of congresswoman Katie Porter.
The seat is crucial to Democrats hoping to wrest control of the House of Representatives from Republicans. Come November, Min will face off with Republican Scott Baugh to represent the southern California district in the House.
But Aipac’s massive spending in Orange county has perplexed analysts and Min himself.
“Why the hell did you come in against me? We’re trying to understand why,” Min said in an interview with Semafor.
“Maybe AIPAC wants a rubber stamp. I’m not going to be a rubber stamp,” he said.
Aipac has spent millions of dollars against progressive candidates who have been critical of Israel this year and in recent election cycles.
But the conflict in the Middle East was not a major issue in the primary race. Min’s positions regarding Israel aren’t particularly radical – he has criticized the country’s move to expand settlements in the West Bank and blamed the Israeli prime minister, Bibi Netanyahu, for “security failures” around the 7 October 2023 attacks, but has not publicly called for a ceasefire.
Still, he was hit with a barrage of attack ads. The ads from United Democracy Project, Aipac’s Pac, didn’t mention Min’s position on Israel but instead highlighted his arrest for drunk-driving last spring. “Dave Min wants your trust, but Min was arrested for drunk-driving – putting us all at risk,” one TV commercial said.
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The ads heightened an already tense race between Min and Weiss, an attorney who was backed by Emily’s List and has repeatedly brought up Min’s arrest. Weiss argued that the arrest made Min vulnerable to Republican attacks, and that Democrats needed a stronger candidate for a district that Porter only narrowly held in 2022. While their positions on Israel have been similar, Weiss received large donations from Aipac donors.
But in the end Min won out, receiving 26% of the vote to Weiss’s 19.3%, according to early returns. Republican Scott Baugh received 32.5%.
Still, the ads may have affected Min’s campaign. “They were pretty arresting. I don’t know whether they did the trick politically,” said Jim Newton, a UCLA lecturer and veteran journalist who has followed the region closely. “Without that money maybe Dave Min finishes first.”
The level of spending speaks to just how much Orange county has transformed in recent years, Newton said. Once a longtime Republican stronghold, the now increasingly diverse region is home to some of the most competitive House races in the US.
“For a while there probably wasn’t much [outside spending] because those seats were so solidly Republican. Because it’s now kind of purple, it’s ripe for that kind of spending.”
Weiss, Aipac and the United Democracy Project did not respond to a request for comment.
“We support candidates from both parties solely based on one criteria – their commitment to strengthening the US-Israel relationship,” Marshall Wittmann, an Aipac spokesperson, told Politico.