US won’t punish Israel for Rafah op that doesn’t protect civilians

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The Biden administration is not planning to punish Israel if it launches a military campaign in Rafah without ensuring civilian safety.

Three U.S. officials, granted anonymity to detail internal discussions, told NatSec Daily no reprimand plans are in the works, meaning Israeli forces could enter the city and harm civilians without facing American consequences. More than half of the enclave’s 2.3 million population has fled to Rafah, putting them in clear danger whenever the operation moves beyond the bombing phase.

Public comments by senior Biden administration officials made clear there won’t be a change in approach, even though the U.S. said it wants to see a credible civilian protection plan before a ground invasion starts.

Asked Monday if the president ever threatened to strip Israel of military aid, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said “we’re going to continue to support Israel … And we’re going to continue to make sure they have the tools and the capabilities to do that.” Then today, Kirby wouldn’t respond to a question about what the U.S. would do if the Rafah operation went forward without concern for civilian safety: “I’m not going to get into a hypothetical game.”

State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER had a much testier Monday exchange with reporters. A journalist asked what leverage the U.S. had used to influence Israel on Rafah. Miller replied that President JOE BIDEN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s occasional tough talk on Israel has had sway.

“We have seen the government of Israel respond to it, not always in the way that we want, not always to the degree that we want or to the level that we want, but our interventions, we believe, have had an impact, and we will continue to pursue them,” the spokesperson continued.

And was the administration pleased with the results of that approach? “In many cases, no, absolutely we are not,” he conceded, though he noted the U.S. had successfully pushed Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.

The White House’s approach has support from many inside and outside the administration. Backers of the policy say the U.S. should help Israel defend itself after Hamas attacked it on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people in a single day, the deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust. The fear is that if the U.S. bashes Israel too hard or too publicly, any influence administration officials have with their Israeli counterparts fades away — potentially leading Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to authorize an even more aggressive military campaign.

But critics of the Biden administration contend they are refusing to use considerable leverage over Israel to save lives. Instead of withholding military assistance or sanctioning extreme members of Netanyahu’s government, Biden and his team prefer to signal displeasure in public. That offers nice soundbites, they say, but it actually doesn’t change anything.

“There are no indications of any policy change,” said MICHAEL DiMINO, a former CIA official now at the Defense Priorities think tank.

The Inbox

PUSH TO STOP THE RAFAH OP: The South African government is requesting that the United Nations’ top court consider an intervention in Israel’s anticipated military operation in Rafah, our own SEJLA AHMATOVIC reports.

The southern city “is the last refuge for surviving people in Gaza,” South Africa’s presidency said today, urging the International Criminal Court to use “its power to prevent further imminent breach of the rights of Palestinians in Gaza.”

South Africa is “gravely concerned that the unprecedented military offensive … will result in further large-scale killing, harm and destruction.”

Last month South Africa brought a case to the ICJ asking it to consider whether Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. The court found that some of Israel’s acts appear capable of falling within the definition of genocide, but stopped short of ordering a halt to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

SENATE SUPPLEMENTAL: The White House is going on the offensive with a new talking point to convince House members they need to pass the national security supplemental: failing to greenlight the bill means helping Iran, Alex reports.

According to a talking points and messaging memo, the administration is arguing that Iran has sided with Russia in its war on Ukraine and has long supported Hamas. To not pass the legislation that gives aid to both Ukraine and Israel, then, would be to make life easier for Tehran.

“A House vote against American national security is a vote to appease and empower the Iranian regime. Period,” reads the document drafted by deputy press secretary and senior communications adviser ANDREW BATES. “Iran is integral to Putin’s war effort in Ukraine, providing him with weapons and financial support. Right now, Russians are killing Ukrainian civilians with Iranian drones. Iran is even considering supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles.”

Just before snow blanketed Washington (and ruined our morning commute), the Senate approved $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan by a 70-29 vote early this morning, our own URSULA PERANO, BURGESS EVERETT and KIERRA FRAZIER report.

The bill now faces an uncertain fate in the House, where Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is giving the legislation a frosty reception. But in an interview with Burgess today, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL urged Johnson to allow a vote on Ukraine aid, though McConnell said he would not be “so presumptuous as to tell him how to do it.”

The Biden administration’s memo, which will be distributed to lawmakers, pundits and reporters, is targeted to shame House Republicans into supporting the aid package. In a not-so-thinly veiled attack on former President DONALD TRUMP, the Republican frontrunner in the presidential election, Bates mentions “unhinged, irresponsible voices on the right are even encouraging Russia to attack our closest allies and agitating to unravel NATO.”

RUSSIA TO DOUBLE MILITARY ALONG NATO BORDER: Moscow plans to double its number of troops along its border with Finland and Baltic countries as it preps for a possible confrontation with NATO countries in the coming years, The Financial Times’ RICHARD MILNE and MAX SEDDON report.

That’s according to Estonia’s foreign intelligence service chief KAUPO ROSIN, whose analyses of Russian developments are closely followed in Europe. Expect to see an increase in armed personnel carriers, tanks and artillery systems along the border, he said.

Rosin emphasized that the Kremlin isn’t “willing to conduct any military actions” toward the alliance right now, but said “we see that the Russians in their own thinking are calculating that military conflict with NATO is possible in the next decade.”

PUTIN DENIED: The U.S. shut down Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s suggestion of a cease-fire in Ukraine that would freeze the current frontlines, three Russians with knowledge of the talks told Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE and DARYA KORSUNSKAYA.

The Kremlin leader sent the U.S. signals publicly and privately through intermediaries last year that he was ready to talk about a cease-fire, the people said. The deal would freeze the lines and Russia wouldn’t cede any territory it has seized.

“The contacts with the Americans came to nothing,” one of the people said. Another person familiar said the U.S. told Moscow that they wouldn’t discuss a possible cease-fire without looping in Ukraine, so the talks failed.

The Kremlin “never made any kind of proposal to us nor have we seen any signs that Putin is sincerely interested in ending the war,” a senior administration official told NatSec Daily, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. The official added that talks to end the war wouldn’t happen without Ukraine being involved.

HOSTAGE DEAL MOVEMENT: Israel and Hamas have been making “relatively significant progress” on the deal to release hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting, a senior Egyptian official told The Associated Press’ SAMY MAGDY, NAJIB JOBAIN and TIA GOLDENBERG.

The assessment came before a meeting in Cairo between Qatar, U.S. and Israeli officials. During the meeting, those representatives will focus on “crafting a final draft” of a six-week cease-fire, the Egyptian official said.

On Monday, while meeting with Jordanian King ABDULLAH II in Washington, Biden said “the key elements of the deal are on the table” but that “gaps” remain.

WHELAN TALKS: Blinken said today that he recently spoke with PAUL WHELAN, the former Marine who has been jailed in Russia for more than five years, our own KELLY GARRITY reports. The SecState provided few details about what he discussed with Whelan.

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP ‘BOWED DOWN’ TO PUTIN: Biden accused Trump of issuing a “dangerous” invitation to Putin to invade American allies, raising the stakes of getting his national security supplemental through Congress, our own JENNIFER HABERKORN reports.

“No other president in our history has ever bowed down to a Russian dictator,” Biden said from the White House state dining room today. “For God’s sake. It’s dumb. It’s shameful. It’s dangerous. It’s un-American. When America gives its word, it means something. When we make a commitment, we keep it and NATO is a sacred commitment. Donald Trump looks at this as if it’s a burden.”

The comments from Biden represented the most significant pushback issued from the White House to date against his former and likely future rival. They come at a perilous time for legislation that would send millions of dollars in foreign aid to Ukraine and other nations.

‘JUST MORE CHAOS’: GOP presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY released a new ad attacking Trump today, emphasizing the “chaos” that will ensue if he’s elected president again, Matt reports.

“A 10 percent across the board tax increase. More record-breaking debt. A Russian victory that will bring more war. With a world on fire and a crisis at home, with Trump it’s just more chaos,” the narrator says.

ICYMI — ‘Everyone should be scared as hell’: Democrats call for Trump-proofing NATO by our own JOE GOULD, CONNOR O’BRIEN and PAUL McLEARY

Keystrokes

WATCH THIS SPACE: Moscow is buying Starlink satellite internet terminals in Arab countries and using them in its war against Kyiv, according to fresh evidence from Ukraine’s military, The Wall Street Journal’s IAN LOVETT, MICAH MAIDENBERG and DREW FITZGERALD report.

“Arabs bring everything to us: wires, Wi-Fi, router,” said a Russian man in a recording reportedly intercepted by Ukrainian officials, during which he explained how to obtain the SpaceX tech. The people in the recording said those devices cost about $2,200.

Ukrainian troops have relied on ELON MUSK’s Starlink to maintain communications throughout the war, even without cell or radio signals. It’s seen as so crucial to war efforts that the Pentagon struck a deal with SpaceX last year to continue providing the service to Ukraine.

Musk’s company has come under scrutiny in the past week, however, due to reports that Russia also has the capability. On Sunday, the tech billionaire denied that SpaceX is selling any products to Moscow.

AND WATCH THIS SPACE: The White House late Monday released an update to its critical emerging technologies list, which tracks what new tech could improve American innovation and strengthen national security.

Of the 18 new technologies listed, these stood out to us: biotechnologies; data privacy, data security, and cybersecurity technologies; highly automated, autonomous, and uncrewed systems and robotics; hypersonics; and space technologies and systems.

PLOT FOILED: The FBI revealed it used a controversial foreign surveillance tool to foil a terrorist plot on U.S. soil last year, part of a series of last-minute disclosures it hopes will sway Congress as lawmakers debate overhauling the measure known as Section 702 later this week, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports.

The Complex

TANKS FOR NOTHING: Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks in its war against Ukraine — the equivalent of its pre-war inventory — but has enough lower-quality armored vehicles to replace them for years to come, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

“Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity ... by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month,” said a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies published today.

The report also found that Russia is spending around one-third of its budget on defense, but is burning through arms, ammunition and troops at an unsustainable pace, our own GIOVANNA COI reports.

Read: Germans want more defense spending by our own JOSHUA POSANER

On the Hill

UKRAINE’S DRONE ARMY: Ukraine’s new military branch dedicated to streamlining drone use on the battlefield is “extremely promising,” Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) told Matt following a trip to Kyiv.

Last week, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY announced the Unmanned Systems Forces, a new section of the country’s armed forces that will streamline the use of drones in the war. Drones have played a critical role in Kyiv’s military operations, striking deep inside Russian territory and making up for the country’s lack of troops.

Ukraine plans on hiring staff to train soldiers and operate drones, as well as scale production to make sure the military has enough of the tech. Kyiv has big plans for the year, aiming to produce thousands of long-range drones, according to Ukraine’s digital minister MYKHAILO FEDOROV.

During a trip to Ukraine last week, Crow, a member of the House Foreign Affairs and Intelligence Committees, was briefed on the new branch and spoke extensively with Zelenskyy about the matter.

“The Ukrainians are basically the MacGyvers of modern warfare,” Crow said. He added that the U.S. must pass funding for Ukraine because “they’re on the verge of breaking through and creating this very strong industrial base, this modern military force that can stand on its own, but they’re not there yet.”

Broadsides

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — J STREET WANTS PALESTINIAN RECOGNITION: The U.S. should signal a willingness to recognize a demilitarized Palestinian state, the progressive pro-Israel group J Street announced today, a major policy shift for the group with deep ties to senior Biden administration officials.

“We can’t go back to the status quo pre-Oct. 7, the president himself has said as much. It’s time for real action toward a two-state solution and a comprehensive vision to end this devastating conflict and integrate both states in the region,” J Street President JEREMY BEN-AMI told us.

A lot of work should be done before such recognition is given, including guarantees for Israel’s security and other measures, Ben-Ami said. But, he added, “by outlining a peaceful path to freedom, independence and statehood, the United States can bolster moderate Palestinian leadership, disempower Hamas and reduce the levels of despair and disenfranchisement upon which extremists feed.”

J Street detailed the organization’s policy shift at its Policy Center symposium today. The decision is yet another sign of changing attitudes on the progressive side about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, heaping more pressure on the Biden administration to change its own policy toward Israel.

The State Department is already looking at options to recognize a Palestinian state, though it’s unclear when — or even if — that might happen and what it would mean.

ANNIVERSARY SANCTIONS: The European Union is for the first time planning to sanction companies in mainland China, and in other countries including Turkey, India and Serbia, for helping Russia circumvent sanctions and buy dual-use goods, several diplomats told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook.

The bloc wants to finalize a 13th package of sanctions against Russia before Feb. 24, which would mark two years since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. If EU countries agree to include the four names in the bloc’s dual-use sanctions list, European firms will be banned from dealing with those companies.

RUSSIA’S MOST WANTED: Russia placed Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS on a wanted list “for the destruction and damage of monuments to Soviet soldiers,” our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports.

In 2022, the Estonian government decided to remove war monuments dating from Soviet times in the eastern city of Narva. Estonia’s State Secretary TAIMAR PETERKOP and Lithuania’s Culture Minister SIMONAS KAIRYS are also on the list, Russian state-run news agency TASS reported, citing law enforcement agencies.

Transitions

— Former Joint Chief chair Gen. MARK MILLEY is joining Georgetown and Princeton, his alma mater, to teach national security, Axios’ MIKE ALLEN reports.

What to Read

— MARK KIMMITT, POLITICO: Developments from Ukraine: Precision warfare on the cheap

— Editorial board, The Financial Times: The plight of journalists in Gaza

— THOMAS FRIEDMAN, The New York Times: Only Biden and M.B.S. can redirect the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Tomorrow Today

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: Building international support for Taiwan

— House Science, Space and Technology Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: ISS and beyond: the present and future of American low-earth orbit activities

— House Financial Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Oversight of the financial crimes enforcement network and the office of terrorism and financial intelligence

— House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: AUKUS implementation and challenges to international security and arms control in the 21st century

— House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Iran’s proxy in Yemen: The Houthi threat to Middle East stability and U.S. interests

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who never follows through on her threats.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose bite is worse than his bark.