Zelensky Pushing US for Long-term Security Deal Based On 'Israeli Model'

As Ukraine's counteroffensive grinds on, officials far away from the frontlines in Washington and Kyiv are quietly negotiating a formal alliance that could reshape Europe's security landscape.

The negotiations have been overshadowed by Kyiv's push this summer to retake Russian-held territory in southern Ukraine, but the discussions drew fresh attention recently when Ukrainian President Volodymyr said he expects Ukraine and the United States will agree to a security pact that's similar to the alliance between the U.S. and Israel. The two countries don't have a defense treaty, but the U.S. provides Israel with billions in military aid and has long been its most important ally.

"We will likely get this exact model," Zelensky said in an interview Sunday with Ukrainian media, "the Israeli model that includes weapons, technology, training [and] finances."

Such an arrangement would provide Ukraine less security than membership in NATO, which President Biden has said won't happen before the end of the war. But it would establish Ukraine as a critical long-term partner for the U.S. in Eastern Europe, while sending Russia the message that Western support for Kyiv won't waiver.

"The point is to telegraph to Russia that they can't just wait out the West," said Eric Ciaramella, a former director for Ukraine at the National Security Council.

A formal security commitment to Ukraine "is a credible interim arrangement until the issue of NATO membership is clarified," said Ciaramella, a Russia and Ukraine expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

A bilateral security alliance along the lines of the pact between America and Israel would presumably create a permanent stream of military assistance to Ukraine, along with training, intelligence cooperation and other resources. Since the start of the war Congress has approved military aid for Ukraine on an ad hoc basis, creating uncertainty for Kyiv's military planners.

A long-term security guarantee could also help insulate Ukraine from changes in power in the White House and Congress. A growing number of congressional Republicans and some of the party's 2024 presidential candidates oppose giving Ukraine more military aid.

But it's unclear from Zelensky's comments whether negotiators are using Israel as a model for Ukraine, or if that is merely the direction he would like to see the talks take. Zelensky has been known to goad and cajole Western allies to try to get them to do more to support Ukraine.

Zelensky's comments Sunday were not the first time he's raised Israel as a possible model for the U.S.-Ukraine relationship going forward. He has mentioned it on at least two occasions last year, and it was included in a 2022 white paper endorsed by Zelensky's top aide.

The Biden administration has said little publicly about the security negotiations with Ukraine since announcing in early August that the talks had begun.

In response to a request for comment, a White House official directed Newsweek to the joint declaration of support to Ukraine issued by Biden and the other leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations at the NATO summit in Lithuania in July.

All of the G7 countries pledged to formalize bilateral security commitments with Ukraine to help it build a military "force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future." The commitments will include military equipment, training, intelligence sharing and supporting Ukraine's defense industry, according to the communique.

The U.S. State Department declined to comment for this article. Officials from the State and Defense departments and the National Security Council launched bilateral security negotiations with Ukrainian officials on Aug. 3, according to the State Department.

The Biden administration has not laid out a timeline for the U.S.-Ukraine negotiations. Several questions remain about what an agreement would look like and how it would be implemented.

In the case of Israel, Congress is required by law to ensure that U.S. military aid in the Middle East region doesn't damage Israel's military superiority over its neighbors. That requirement enjoys broad bipartisan support and has served as a benchmark for ensuring Israel receives robust U.S. support.

The White House could take a similar approach with Ukraine, or try in some other way to codify U.S. support for Ukraine.

Either way, experts said an agreement backed by Biden would require approval from Congress on funding and other assistance. It's also not a given that U.S. lawmakers will be as supportive of Ukraine as they are of Israel, said Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street, a nonprofit liberal advocacy group.

"The U.S.-Israel relationship is 'unshakeable' because of the bipartisan support that Israel gets," Ben-Ami said. "I don't know if that model is replicable anywhere else in the world."

Zelensky is hoping Ukraine will be another exception. Ciaramella, the former NSC adviser, argued a security deal between Washington and Kyiv would benefit both sides, however it's structured.

"It's making the best, strongest set of commitments at a time when the platinum standard is just not achievable at the moment," Ciaramella said, referring to NATO membership for Ukraine.

A long-term agreement is "not a silver bullet that will end the war overnight," Ciaramella added. "But protracted conflict is a conflict of wills, and we have to show we're in it for the long haul."