With Democrat Joe Biden and President Donald Trump effectively tied in the race for Florida’s critically important cache of electoral votes, a new poll shows the state’s Jewish voters overwhelmingly support Biden.
The poll, released Wednesday, shows Biden with a commanding lead over Trump among Jewish voters in Florida, 73% to 22% — a difference of 51 percentage points.
The race for Florida’s 29 electoral votes is exceedingly close overall. The FiveThirtyEight polling average for Florida on Wednesday showed Biden ahead of Trump 49% to 45.5% — a difference of just 3.5 points.
The poll of Jewish voters was conducted by GBAO Research + Strategy, which has an above-average grade from FiveThirtyEight for its data gathering and accuracy. It was sponsored by liberal national political organization J Street, which has endorsed Biden.
Jewish voters have long been an important and loyal voting bloc supporting Democratic presidential candidates. Election after election, Republican candidates and their supporters proclaim the tide is turning, but the numbers show that isn’t happening in 2020.
Florida is the largest of the six battleground states in the presidential election, awarding 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Jewish voters cast an estimated 5.6% of the ballots returned during the 2016 presidential electorate.
The poll shows Jewish voters in Florida have a much more favorable view of Biden — and a far more unfavorable view of Trump — than the overall electorate.
Among Jewish voters in Florida, Biden is viewed favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 26%, a net positive of 41 percentage points. Trump had 22% favorable and 74% unfavorable, a net negative of 52 points among Jewish voters.
Among the overall electorate, a Florida poll released last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy found Biden viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 40%, for a net positive of 6 points. Trump was viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 50%, a net negative of 7 points among the overall electorate.
Different view
The Orthodox have different views on the presidential race than Reform, Conservative and unaffiliated Jews, the survey found.
Those who identify as Orthodox favor Trump over Biden, 62% to 36%.
Non-Orthodox favor Biden over Trump 76% to 20%. Reform Jews favor Biden, 83% to 13%, Conservative Jews favor Biden 68% to 27% and those who don’t identify with a denomination favor Biden 71% to 25%.
Unlike polling of the broader electorate, there are only minor differences when Jewish voters are broken down by age and gender. Biden’s support ranges from 71% to 75% among men, women, and all age groups. Trump’s support ranges from 19% to 24%. Those numbers are so close that they’re well within the poll’s margin of error.
Partisan takes
“Trump’s appeals to Jewish voters based on his Israel policies have been an utter failure. Forget any so-called ‘Jexodus’ of Jews to the Republican party — the only exodus we see in the numbers is Trump losing a significant amount of his Jewish support from 2016, as voters flock to Joe Biden. Yet again, the idea that Florida Jews make their voting decisions based on Israel — and that they support right-leaning Middle East policies — is proving to be a total myth with no basis in reality,” Jeramy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street, said in a statement.
Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, said the poll doesn’t reflect what he’s seeing in the Jewish community in Florida.
“This poll, by the liberal Democratic group, J Street, is an outlier compared to other polls showing stronger support for President Trump in the Jewish community. It’s wishful thinking for them, as President Trump has the enthusiastic support of the Florida Jewish community given that he is the most pro-Israel President in history. This poll notwithstanding, there is no doubt that President Trump will significantly increase his support among Jewish voters from 2016, and that will be a critical component of his ultimate victory in Florida,” Brooks said via email.
The RJC is running a $3.5 million TV ad campaign in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties.
Anti-Semitism
Jewish voters thought Biden would do a better job than Trump on a range of issues, including combating white nationalism and anti-Semitism (75% to 20%). The poll also found an advantage for Biden on keeping American Jews safe (67% to 25%) and racial justice (77% to 19%).
The poll didn’t delve into the reasons why voters felt the way they did. But Trump has grudgingly condemned white supremacy last week during a nationally televised town hall after declining to do so during the first presidential debate.
And the president may have alienated some voters with some of his actions, such as his declaration after the violent 2017 clash in Charlottesville, Va., that “you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides.” People on the white supremacist side chanted “Jews will not replace us.”
Other issues
Top issue: Coronavirus is the top issue for Jewish voters, and 76% thought Biden was better able than Trump to handle the pandemic.
Asked to identify two top issues, coronavirus was cited by 44%. Israel was ninth out of 13 topics.
The economy was second, cited by 30%, and health care was third, cited by 27%. Several issues scored in the teens: Social Security and Medicare, the Supreme Court, climate change, police reform and racial justice, and national security.
Foreign policy: Jewish voters thought Biden was better than Trump on a range of foreign policy issues, including Iran (60% to 30%), Advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace (59% to 31%) and on Israel (56% to 35%).
Trump has positioned himself as more pro-Israel than Democrats. In practice, that’s meant aligning himself with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — they’ve tacitly supported each other politically — and never criticizing him or his government’s policies. Last month at the White House, Trump presided over the signing of an agreement that improves relations among the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Bahrain that may move the region a step closer to peace.
Iran nuclear deal: Former President Barack Obama’s 2015 deal with Iran aimed at preventing that country from developing a nuclear weapon has support in the Jewish community. Trump withdrew from the deal, which had been strongly opposed by the Israeli government as well as many prominent Jewish members of Congress.
The poll found 64% of Jewish voters in Florida favor re-entering the Iran deal.
The fine print
GBAO conducted the survey of 600 voters, via landlines and cellphones, from Oct 12-14. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The sample sizes for smaller groups, such as Reform or Orthodox Jews are much smaller, which means the margins of error are much higher.
J Street, the sponsor, is a lobbying organization that is typically aligned with Democrats — and often critical of Israeli government policies. It’s a more liberal counterpart to the older and better-known American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which is more supportive of Israeli government policies.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com or on Twitter @browardpolitics
